Could shale gas discoveries herald a revolution in Europe?

Re: Could shale gas discoveries herald a revolution in Europe? http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/print/volume-19/issue-9/regulars/upfront/could-shale-gas-discoveries-herald-a-revolution-in-europe.html

I feel that many in the media are caught up in gold rush fever when they debate the future of shale/unconventional gas in Europe.

Unfortunately, the media hype about shale gas is not backed by the facts. Here are a number of reasons:

1.       The amount of shale/coal seam gas reserves in Europe is questionable despite the over optimistic forecasts provided by the US Geological Survey. The real problem is not how much CSG there is but how much of it can be extracted commercially, given the technological, geological and environmental challenges involved. Already, despite the hype about shale gas from Polish Prime Minister Tusk, news of recent test results have been disappointing to say the least. Prime Minister Tusk has not cancelled plans to construct Poland's first LNG import terminal project, with a capacity of 7.5 billion cubic metres per annum, which is due for completion in June 2014. Which will supply nearly half of the country' gas needs.

2.       To suggest that European produced shale gas prices will be similar to that of the US is unlikely for a number of reasons:

a.       The geology of Europe is much more complex, which makes it more difficult to extract shale gas than in North America.

b.      There is a worldwide shortage of land based drill teams and equipment, especially in Europe. This is likely to get worse as demand increases for such experienced and skilled teams from other oil and gas provinces and from the geothermal power sector.

c.       Unlike the US the European legal, environmental and regulatory landscape is much more complex and needs to be updated to meet the needs of E&P.

d.      If European shale gas production is to make a significant impact on reducing gas imports, then European gas prices must be considerably increased.

e.      At present, the development of shale gas on the US market has turned it into a net gas exporter, forcing Henry Hub prices down. Already several European industrial consumers such as power stations are using American gas.

That is why I think it is unlikely that shale gas discoveries herald a revolution in Europe.

For more info on this see page 14 http://content.yudu.com/A1rsht/EWApril2011/resources/3.htm